What Minsk Means

"Confronted with deadlock, the West has been tempted to agree to play along with Russia’s “Let’s Pretend” game, trying to persuade the world (and itself) that the Minsk process would somehow and sometime guarantee a sustainable truce (we promise!).5 Russia, for its part, pretends that it longs for peace. Ukrainian leaders have to pretend, too, as it remains neither at war nor at peace. A broadly shared willingness to pretend hardly makes for a durable peace settlement.

The impression is that all sides hope to freeze the conflict, leaving it open for a future solution. The Report of the pro-Kremlin Center of the Political Conjecture, in discussing possible scenarios for the conflict, mentions freezing the process for the next 3-5 years as the most “realistic” scenario, because it “demands less expense (political as well).” Russia’s plan, which is supported by some Western forces, is to sustain a frozen conflict that “will torpedo Ukrainian integration into Europe and will create permanent instability inside Ukraine….
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Anyway, the Minsk accord can’t be implemented as designed, and the negotiations will continue through 2016. The negotiations, which already appear to be hopeless, could either imitate the search for a solution or bring about a new peace agreement that would include an enforcement mechanism (which is crucial)."

What Minsk Means http://wp.me/p4ja0Z-z8z